have said it before, and I will say it again: I am not a huge fan of the broader market at these levels.
While the recent banking turmoil has raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut rates soon, I think we have a better chance of the Cincinnati Reds winning the World Series this year—which is to say: it is not impossible, but the math of the situation and a healthy dose of common sense indicates that it is highly unlikely.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t some bargain stocks to buy today.
Let me show you one…
The recent 25-basis point hike from the Fed appeased those who thought no hike would be a vote of no confidence in the economy and those who believed a 50-basis point hike might pour gasoline on the carefully manufactured banking crisis. It also bought the Fed an extra six weeks to examine the data and see what path inflation is taking as we move into summer.
More rate hikes are not off the table.
Even if rates remain level for the rest of the year, stock market valuations have not yet priced in all the previous hikes.
The market is currently trading at about 22 times reported earnings which is well above both historical averages and previous market bottoms.
Even after the recent selloff, the returns from market indexes are unlikely to be the stuff of academic dreams.
I am finding bargains among select small banks as well as small-cap deep value and small-cap momentum stocks for members of the paid services like the Bank Takeover Letter and the 2023 Turnaround Project, but I have little interest in most larger stocks, including especially unprofitable tech stocks.
In all my services, we are still far from fully invested. I would love to be more aggressive, but the math suggests it is not time yet.
We are much closer to a buying opportunity than we were at the beginning of 2023; however, we still do not see the type of fear from either individual or institutional investors that usually accompanies a bottom in stock prices.
But I do keep my eyes out for special situations and have come across one that should have limited downside and has massive upside potential: Delek US Holdings (DK) is an energy company with refineries and convenience stores across the southwestern United States.
The company owns refineries in Tyler and Big Spring, Texas; El Dorado, Arkansas; and Krotz Springs, Louisiana. As of the end of the first quarter, it also owns 240 gas station convenience stores located in New Mexico and West Texas.
Delek US Holding also owns 87% of Delek Logistics Partners LP (DLK). According to its website, Delek Logistics owns 400 miles of crude oil transportation pipelines, 450 miles of refined product pipelines, approximately 900 miles of crude oil gathering, and intermediate and refined product storage tanks with about 10.2 million barrels.
Here is where it gets interesting: Delek USA has a market capitalization of $1.57 billion. Delek Logistics has a market capitalization of $2.15 billion. The 78% of the logistics partnership owned by Delek US is worth $1.67 billion.
At current prices, Delek US Holdings shareholders are being paid roughly $100 million, or about $1.45 a share, to own stock in the refineries and convenience stores.
Based on cash flows, those two businesses are worth the stock price, but the current stock price assigns them a negative value.
Delek US Holding management has been very shareholder friendly. They used cash flows to repurchase 2.8 million shares of stock in the fourth quarter. The company also increased the dividend by a penny, and the stock now yields 3.8%.
Delek’s CEO and CFO were both buying more stock on the open market in March. Collectively, company insiders own more than 1.8 million shares of Delek US Holdings, so they have plenty of skin in the game.
According to my calculations, the sum of the parts for Delek US Holdings is well above the current stock price. The valuation may take some time to be unlocked, but patient-aggressive shareholders should be well rewarded.
The fact that the refineries and convenience stores are not accounted for in the stock’s current price creates a massive margin of safety for shares of Delek US Holdings.
— Tim Melvin
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Source: Investors Alley
